“Everything we see in the years to come will be compared to 2025, not to 2022 or to 2019,” one studio executive told TheWrap.“This is going to be the new benchmark.”

The struggles of rebuilding after the pandemic, with audiences slowly returning in 2021 and studios navigating production backlogs in 2022, tainted the long-term data about moviegoing habits, even as films like “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” proved that Hollywood could produce a global hit as huge as they did before 2020.

Then the double labor strikes derailed hopes that 2023 or 2024 would be the first “normal” year, leading to delays that contributed to last May becoming the worst at the box office in a quarter century. The mantra of “Survive ’til ’25” that flowed through the film industry was particularly true for theaters, which need consistent releases above all else.

That consistency will begin with a slow start this weekend with the Sony comedy “One of Them Days” and the Universal/Blumhouse horror film “Wolf Man,” alongside an expansion of A24’s top Oscar contender ”The Brutalist.” In February, Marvel Studios will provide the big tentpole of the first quarter with “Captain America: Brave New World.”

Assuming no major setbacks in 2025, Gower Street Analytics is projecting a domestic box office total of $9.7 billion, up from the $9.04 billion recorded by Comscore in 2023.

While that’s still short of the $11.3 billion recorded before inflation adjustment in 2019, exhibitors tell TheWrap that a $10 billion year is not off the table, especially considering that the slate for the second half of the year could see several more additions. This time last year, Disney had not yet announced that it was adding “Moana 2” to its slate, and that film has made nearly $400 million domestic and $900 million worldwide after five weekends.

But the extent of the optimism varies depending on whom you ask, Daniel Loria, SVP of content strategy at BoxOffice, said.

“I have heard multiple exhibitors say they believe it is not unrealistic that we could hit $10 billion,” Loria told TheWrap. “Studios and premium format execs think it is closer to $9 billion. At BoxOffice, we’ve taken all those varying perspectives into account for our domestic projections, which we put at $9.3 billion to $9.7 billion.”

One reason why there’s so much optimism among exhibitors is that the 2025 slate should be free of the weeks-long droughts that have plagued theaters over the past three years. Take 2022, for example, which saw the mid-summer highs of “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Jurassic World: Dominion” give way to a deep early autumn slump, including a September where grosses fell to the lowest level since 1996.

One studio executive believes that the industry will be able to put such slumps behind them as the frequency of theatrical releases increases. Currently, Comscore estimates there will be 110 films released wide in 2,000 North American theaters, more than the 101 released in 2023. The executive believes that count could increase to 120 or more.

“If you look at the first quarter, there’s a lot of volume,” the executive said. “We haven’t seen that in a few years. You have breadth, volume and a wide variety of anticipated tentpoles, and that’s everything we need to figure out what the new normal is and how the audience is responding.”

Earlier this month, the National Association of Theater Owners released a report that outlined other reasons for optimism. Frequent moviegoers are on the rise, as evidenced by a 12% increase in theater loyalty program members in 2024 to 112 million nationwide, the report showed.

NATO also cited a survey from Mintel that found that 85% of moviegoers surveyed plan to go to theaters more frequently in the next 12 months than they did in the previous 12. Eager to make a good impression with those moviegoers, the top eight circuits in the U.S. and Canada are investing a combined $2.2 billion in updates and refurbishments to their multiplexes.

“As theatrical exhibition heads into 2025, it does so bolstered by consumer excitement for movies on the big screen, a continuing and strengthening commitment to serve the movie-going public and enhance the experience for all, and an increased movie production slate across all important genres to ensure that there is something for everyone at the cinema,” NATO’s report read.

Falling short of 2010s box office levels before inflation adjustment would be a glass-half-empty scenario. Loria noted that while the recovery process for the film industry is progressing steadily, the post-strike slowdown in green lighting projects adopted over the past year will still impact the number of wide releases. So will the wave of consolidation that has already hit theaters with Disney’s acquisition of 20th Century Fox. That could continue to take a toll under an M&A-friendly Trump administration.

“Even in the best-case scenario, we’re still not going to be back to pre-pandemic numbers, and a big reason for that is that there’s one less studio putting out a full slate,“ Loria said. “That’s going to stretch out how long it takes for numbers to rise.”

The year ahead

The opening quarter of 2025 also reflects that “half-full or half-empty” question when it comes to the potential for increased numbers. On the one hand, the sheer frequency of films in the opening months is far greater than the last two years, reducing the possibility of a drought.

“Captain America: Brave New World,” will be a big test of the MCU’s ability to get fans wary of the franchise’s post-“Avengers: Endgame” inconsistency back on board ahead of the return of Robert Downey Jr. in “Avengers: Doomsday” next year.

February will also showcase lower budget films like Sony/StudioCanal’s “Paddington in Peru” and Universal/87North’s “Love Hurts,” which marks the first lead role for Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan after his big return to Hollywood in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

On the “half-empty” side, the March slate does not have the tentpole power of years past. Films like “Dune: Part Two,” “Creed III” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” have all launched to strong starts in recent years. In 2025, the highest profile March release will be Disney’s remake of “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs,” a film whose trailer has been negatively received. The film risks being a flop for the entertainment giant after a 2024 in which all of its major films dodged such a fate.

In their place will be a series of lower-budget original and auteur-driven films trying to find an audience, including Warner Bros.’ “Mickey 17,” director Bong Joon-ho’s follow-up to his historic Best Picture winner “Parasite.” Robert De Niro will also star in the WB crime film “Alto Knights,” while “The Boys” star Jack Quaid tries out being an action lead playing a banker who can’t feel pain in Paramount’s “Novocaine.”

A very hot summer

This will lead into a second and third quarter where the glass could be overflowing. Ryan Coogler highlights April with the original Michael B. Jordan horror film “Sinners,” leading into a summer that includes the Marvel film “Thunderbolts*,” remakes of Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” and DreamWorks’ “How to Train Your Dragon,” Pixar’s “Elio,” the horror threequel “28 Years Later” and Tom Cruise’s potential adieu to Ethan Hunt in “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning.”

Then in July is the big one: “Superman.” The film carries very high stakes for Warner Bros. as it will determine whether the studio has a potential king franchise with James Gunn’s DC Studios. So far, things are looking up for the Son of Krypton, as the teaser trailer earned a Warner Bros. record 250 million views in its first 24 hours, a sign of widespread interest even with major head-to-head competition like “Jurassic World: Rebirth” and Marvel’s “Fantastic Four: The First Steps” also hitting screens in July.

A big finish

After the summer, the big bucks should keep rolling in. September likely will bring a relative slowdown with demographic-specific titles like “The Conjuring: Last Rites,” “Saw XI” and “Downton Abbey 3” on the slate. But that will change in a big way in October with “Michael,” a biopic that Lionsgate hopes will reverse its fortunes after a terrible 2024 at the box office and which could challenge “Oppenheimer” for the highest-grossing biopic of all time.

That will lead into a final two months that should be just as big as the one theaters just enjoyed with the return of Elphaba and Glinda in Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” followed by the Thanksgiving release of Disney’s “Zootopia 2.” Paramount, which provided young men with an alternative in 2024 with “Gladiator II,” will do so again with Glen Powell’s take on Stephen King’s “The Running Man,” which will likely be produced at a lower budget than the Ridley Scott legacyquel.

Closing out the year will be James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” a sequel to the 2022 film “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which grossed $2.32 billion. While this third installment won’t have the advantage of a 13-year wait to build up hype, it is clear that moviegoers around the world are excited for more adventures in Pandora and will likely turn up en masse once again.

What could derail a big 2025?

The fact that many major titles are coming out in close proximity to each other is why theater owners feel like the rebound they’ve enjoyed in the second half of 2024 is just the beginning. But there is one thing that could crush all their hopes: another pandemic.

In recent months, health officials have warned about the spread of the H5N1 virus, also known as the “bird flu,” among cows across the United States and Canada. Dozens of cases have been reported in humans, but so far the virus has yet to mutate in a way that would make it highly contagious and transmittable among humans.

Still, epidemiologists have warned that the more the virus spreads among livestock unchecked, the greater the risk for farmers in proximity to those animals; and the more humans that get infected from those animals, the greater the chance of a dangerous mutation occurring and triggering another pandemic that could close theaters again.

When asked by TheWrap about his concerns over the bird flu, one theater owner said that he was aware and concerned about the virus, but couldn’t dwell on it.

“I mean, what can any of us in this industry do?” he said. “If it does happen, at least we have the social distancing and disinfecting protocols from COVID ready to go, but whether or not it gets bad enough that we have to close is out of our hands. But yeah, it would be beyond frustrating if it ever gets to that.”

For now, exhibitors are focusing on what they can control: improving moviegoer experience and auditorium quality, working with studios to market films directly to their loyalty members and taking advantage of the growing release slate to build momentum.

“At CinemaCon, [AMC CEO] Adam Aron was asked in a panel if the movie theater industry can survive being a $9 billion industry. After this year, we won’t have to worry about that question,” Loria said. “Now the active question is who can survive in a $10 billion industry, and can Hollywood and exhibitors keep the pie growing in the years to come to allow the business at large to remain sustainable?”

The post 2025 Should Finally Be the Year the Box Office Has Been Waiting For – Will It Be? appeared first on TheWrap.

That matches the unadjusted $15.2 million of the first “Den of Thieves” released back in 2018. The sequel, which stars Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr., has received somewhat positive reception with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 60% critics and 80% audience and a B+ on CinemaScore. The film carries a $40 million budget, though Lionsgate’s strategy of recouping some or all of the investment on their films through foreign presales should lower the break-even point.

Holiday holdovers fill up the rest of the top 5, starting with Disney’s “Mufasa,” which will cross $500 million worldwide with an estimated $12 million fourth weekend, bringing its domestic total to $187 million.

Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is passing a milestone of its own as the first film in the Sega series to cross $200 million domestic, earning $8.6 million in its fourth weekend for a $202 million domestic total.

Focus Features’ “Nosferatu” is in fourth with $6.3 million in its third weekend and an $81 million total, followed by Disney’s “Moana 2” with $5.9 million in its seventh weekend as it inches ever closer to $1 billion worldwide.

Overall grosses for the weekend are estimated to stand at $72 million, approximately a 31% drop from last weekend. This drop can primarily be attributed to the usual post-holiday drop as the public returns to work but is also being affected by winter storms hitting the southern and eastern U.S. and the wildfires in Los Angeles, where 12 theaters are currently closed.

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In Los Angeles, of course, there are multiple wildfires that have brought many parts of the city to a standstill as more than 9,000 homes and structures are estimated to have been damaged or destroyed in the Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and other areas hit by rapidly spreading blazes.

On Thursday, representatives for AMC and Regal Cinemas say that some of their locations remain closed due to the fires, including the AMC at Universal CityWalk, the Regal at the Paseo in Pasadena, and the Regal UA in La Canada Flintridge.

At time of writing, AMC was still deciding on whether to keep its seven-screen location on the Third Street Promenade closed as it is only blocks away from Palisades Park, where officials have issued a mandatory evacuation order. Arthouse chain Landmark Theaters has closed its locations in Pasadena, Westwood, and on Sunset Boulevard, as well as the historic Nuart Theatre on Santa Monica Boulevard near the 405 Freeway.

Some theaters that were closed on Wednesday have reopened, namely the AMC locations in Topanga and Glendale as well as the Regal at the Sherman Oaks Galleria, which had to close due to power outages in the area.

The only theater known to be directly threatened by the fires is the Netflix-owned Bay Theater in Pacific Palisades. It is located in the Palisades Village developed by former mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, who told the LA Times that the shopping center had suffered damage, though did not go into details on the extent.

While other major multiplexes in the city such as the AMC locations in Burbank and Century City have remained open through the week, exhibitor sources tell TheWrap that they expect moviegoing to significantly slow down as Angelenos, regardless of where they live, stay home due to poor air quality from the wildfire smoke.

Such conditions have already led to the cancellation of all events at the Music Center and Walt Disney Concert Hall, while the Los Angeles Lakers and LA Kings postponed home games scheduled at Crypto.com Arena. On Thursday evening, the NFL announced that the Los Angeles Rams’ playoff game to be held at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Monday would be moved to State Farm Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona.

In other parts of the country, theaters are expected to either shut down or have business significantly curtailed by Winter Storm Cora, which dropped feet of snow on Texas on Wednesday and led to thousands of flight cancellations and school closures. The storm is making its way across the southern U.S. and could reach the mid-Atlantic coast this weekend.

How much this will all affect the box office remains to be seen. Daily grosses for films currently in theaters took an expected steep drop with the end of the holiday period, but remain slightly above the films released last year.

Wednesday’s highest grossing film was Disney’s “Mufasa” with $1.4 million, followed by Focus’ “Nosferatu” with $1.3 million and Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” with $1.1 million. By comparison, only one film, Sony’s “Anyone But You,” topped $1 million on the second Wednesday of 2024.

Along with the holiday holdovers, this weekend’s offerings at the cinema include Lionsgate’s “Den of Thieves: Pantera,” which is projected for an $11-13 million opening weekend. Paramount will also release the music biopic “Better Man” in 1,200 theaters, where it is expected to gross less than $5 million.

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From 15 films released last year, Lionsgate grossed a mere $244.7 million at the North American box office, according to data from The Numbers. To put that into perspective, 2024’s highest grossing film, Disney/Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” made more in its first week in U.S./Canada theaters than the theatrical runs of all of Lionsgate’s 2024 films combined.

The studio was able to end the year on a positive note with Kingdom Story Company’s low-budget family film “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” which grossed a decent $40 million. But that wasn’t enough to outweigh flops like “The Crow,” “The Killer’s Game,” and most prominently, “Borderlands,” which was a $110 million co-production and grossed a measly $32.9 million worldwide.

“On ‘Borderlands,’ nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong: it sat on the shelf for too long during the pandemic, and reshoots and rising interest rates took it outside the safety zone of our usual strict financial models,” CEO Jon Feltheimer said frankly in an earnings call last November.

Thankfully for Lionsgate, 2025 comes with multiple films with name-brand recognition that should have far better box office potential. The wild card of the bunch is “Ballerina,” a “John Wick” spinoff starring Ana de Armas that will likely prominently feature Keanu Reeves’ cameo as John Wick in its marketing. September will see the return of Jigsaw in “Saw XI,” a sequel to the 2023 “Saw X,” which revitalized the seemingly stale 2000s horror series with the most critically praised installment yet.

But Lionsgate may release the highest grossing film in its history in October with “Michael,” Antoine Fuqua’s highly anticipated Michael Jackson biopic with the late pop star played by his nephew, Jaafar Jackson. Lionsgate will handle domestic distribution on the film with Universal handling overseas, and the film is likely to draw significant interest not only with Jackson’s immense fanbase, but also from general moviegoers who may be curious about how the film handles Jackson’s personal scandals and abuse allegations.

Any one of those films would make 2025 a far better year for Lionsgate than 2024. Combined, they may give Lionsgate a chance to not only improve from last year but also top the $579 million grossed in 2023 from films like “Saw X” and “John Wick: Chapter 4.”

But it begins with “Den of Thieves: Pantera,” the sequel to the 2018 STX action film starring Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr. That film opened to $15 million from a similar mid-January release slot, and “Den of Thieves: Pantera” is projected to open slightly below that at $11-13 million.

If it can perform slightly above that and match the $15 million of its predecessor, it may have a chance to take the No. 1 spot from Disney’s “Mufasa,” which made $23 million last weekend. “Den of Thieves 2” was produced by eOne, which Lionsgate acquired at the end of 2023, on a $40 million budget, so it will take Lionsgate’s usual formula of foreign presales and a thrifty digital marketing spend to make it theatrically profitable as it tries to leg out to the $44.9 million domestic run of the first “Den of Thieves.”

Also opening after a limited run is Paramount’s “Better Man,” a biopic about British music star Robbie Williams in which he plays himself as a computer-generated ape. Directed by “The Greatest Showman” filmmaker Michael Gracey, “Better Man has received widespread praise from surprised critics with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, but has only grossed a mere $91,700 from six theaters as it has struggled to gain interest from American moviegoers who are largely unfamiliar with Williams and his music.

Because of this, Paramount has significantly drawn down the film’s nationwide expansion to approximately 1,200 theaters and is projected to open to less than $5 million.

It is very possible that the weekend grosses for all films will be substantially impacted this week, as several major Los Angeles theaters such as the AMC Glendale and Regal Sherman Oaks are currently closed due to the wildfires that have killed at least five people and destroyed at least 2,000 structures, making it the costliest fire in LA County history. Meanwhile, the east coast is expected to be hit by winter storms that are currently making their way across the central U.S., possibly impacting moviegoing in major cities in the region.

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“Mufasa” shed 175 screens in its third weekend but still held its drop to 35% from last weekend for a $24 million No. 1 total and a $168.7 million domestic cume. It is the first time the “Lion King” prequel has reached the top spot for the Fri.-Sun. period, having been edged out by “Sonic 3” by roughly $200,000 last weekend while leading the extended 5-day period that included Christmas Day.

With $476 million grossed worldwide, “Mufasa” should be able to clear $650 million worldwide and possibly reach $700 million if it can eke out a big more than currently projected. That would put the film in the same final range as Universal’s “Wicked,” which has reached $681 million worldwide from a big November opening and long legs domestically while “Mufasa” is getting there thanks primarily to overseas play while it quietly builds to a $200 million-plus domestic total.

“Sonic 3” is in second this weekend with $21.6 million, putting it in position with $187.9 million domestic to pass the $190.8 million North American total of “Sonic 2” on Monday and the $405 million global total of that 2022 predecessor by next weekend.

More importantly for Paramount, it pushes the lifetime grosses of the “Sonic” series past $1 billion. It’s a remarkable five-year rebound for a series that seemed DOA after fans resounding rejected the initial design of the Blue Blur, leading to a famed redesign that realigned him with his famous look in the Sega games. As “Sonic 3” continues its push for $500 million worldwide, a fourth installment is now in early development for a 2027 release.

In third is Focus Features’ “Nosferatu,” which is continuing to win over horror fans with $13.2 million. After two weekends, Robert Eggers’ vampire film has earned $69.2 million, enough to put it among the top 5 highest grossing films ever for Focus Features before inflation and among the top 10 after inflation as it makes a bid to become the third horror film released in 2024 to gross $100 million in North America, joining “A Quiet Place: Day One” and “Alien: Romulus.”

In fourth is Disney’s “Moana 2,” which is now on the threshold of $1 billion worldwide after making $12.4 million in its sixth weekend, bringing its total to $425 million domestic and $960 million worldwide. When it crosses that mark, it will be the third Disney release of 2024 to do so, joining Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2.”

“Wicked” completes the top 5 with $10.2 million, bringing it past $450 million in domestic grosses as it dropped more than 40% for only the second time in its run. The musical’s release on premium on-demand likely helped contribute to this, though it will still cross $700 million worldwide by next week.

Outside the top 5, Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown” is in sixth, adding $8 million in its second weekend. With $41.6 million grossed, it is Searchlight’s highest grossing film since its acquisition by Disney in 2019, but still needs to leg out to turn a theatrical profit against its $70 million budget. With three Golden Globes nominations and a chance at several top Oscar nominations, it will have a chance to get there over the course of January.

Elsewhere among Globes nominees, A24’s “Babygirl” earned $4.5 million in its second weekend, bringing its total to $16.1 million against a $20 million budget. The indie distributor is also completing the limited release run of “The Brutalist,” grossing $244,341 from eight screens for a weekend-best average of $30,542. With $1.17 million grossed so far, “The Brutalist” will expand into select cities next weekend ahead of a nationwide rollout on Jan. 17, when Oscar nominations will be announced.

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In its third weekend in theaters, the “Lion King” prequel is earning an estimated $24 million, bringing its domestic total to $168 million as it will cross $400 million in global grosses this weekend. After suffering a poor $35 million pre-Christmas weekend opening, “Mufasa” has won over family audiences and is getting the legs it needs to turn a modest theatrical profit.

Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” sits just behind with $20.7 million, but even if the Sega threequel cedes No. 1 this weekend, it has reached a key milestone as “Sonic” now has $1 billion in lifetime theatrical grosses across its three films.

In addition, with an estimated $187.6 million grossed in North America, “Sonic 3” should pass the $190.8 million domestic run of “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” on Monday and then pass its $405.4 million global total by next weekend to become the highest grossing film in the series.

In third is Focus Features’ “Nosferatu,” which continues its remarkable run with horror fans with a $13.1 million second weekend that is just 39% down from its $21.6 million 3-day opening. With an estimated $69.3 million after two weekends, Robert Eggers’ remake of F.W. Murnau’s foundational 1922 horror film is already among the top 10 highest grossing films ever for Focus after inflation adjustment.

November holdovers “Wicked” and “Moana 2” complete the top 5, with “Moana 2” in fourth and just behind “Nosferatu” with $12.6 million to bring its domestic total to $425 million.

“Wicked,” which was released on premium on-demand by Universal earlier this weekend, earned $10.2 million in its seventh weekend to bring its domestic total to $450 million. It is only the second time in its run, after post-Thanksgiving weekend, that it has had a weekend drop of more than 40%.

Universal commonly releases its films on PVOD after a maximum of five weekends of theatrical exclusivity, though it gave “Wicked” an extra weekend of exclusive play to take advantage of Christmas.

Insiders at Universal say that since adopting this PVOD windowing model in 2021, they have found that the availability of films as a $30 digital rental has had a minimal impact on box office grosses as those who take advantage of the home platform usually do not go out to see the film in theaters, as evidenced by the long post-PVOD release of DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot” this past fall. But the larger-than-usual drop for “Wicked” may suggest that fans of the musical who saw the film in theaters and boosted its legs with repeat viewings may be turning to PVOD to get their fix of Elphaba and Glinda.

Outside the top five is Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown” with an estimated second weekend of $8.3 million and a two-weekend total of just under $42 million. At that number, it is already the highest grossing film for Searchlight since its acquisition by Disney in 2019, though it still has a way to go before it breaks even against its reported $70 million budget.

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Thanks to a strong second half, domestic annual grosses finished at a preliminary estimate of $8.7 billion, down 4% year-over-year from the $9.06 billion recorded in 2023 and well above the flat $8 billion that was initially projected by Gower Street Analytics at the start of 2024.

“Everyone in the movie theater business has been saying for the past several years that it’s all about volume,” Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian told TheWrap. “The theaters need more movies. The great second half we’ve had, starting with ‘Inside Out 2,’ has proven that, and you’re seeing it again right now with this Thanksgiving and Christmas boom we’re having where multiple films are drawing huge numbers.”

The 2024 box office was essentially a tale of two halves. The first half, where domestic totals only reached $3.55 billion, was below even the first half of 2022, the first full year for movie theaters after the pandemic shutdown.

But the second half, with an estimated $4.9 billion, actually exceeded the $4.6 billion grossed in the second half of 2023, a period that included the historic success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” but was counterbalanced by a Thanksgiving and Christmas season where only a precious few films made any significant amount.

Exhibitors are confident that the second half of 2024 is more indicative of the future of moviegoing than the first — one where a rising number of wide releases reduces the chances of weeks-long slumps and where multiple films can thrive at the same time. But it is also a future where audiences are even less likely to take a chance on an original new film as opposed to a familiar sequel, and one where the overall health of the industry continues to rise and fall on Disney’s fortunes.

The strike takes its toll

In the autumn of 2023, as SAG-AFTRA and Hollywood’s studios waded through weeks of negotiations to end the actors’ strike, film execs did not know when their stars would be back to finish films that had stopped shooting or to promote films already in the can. As a result, features like Disney’s “Elio” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” were pushed out of the first half of 2024, and the decrease in releases took its toll.

Over the first five months of the year, the only studio that was delivering box office grosses to theaters on a significant level was Warner Bros. It started in January with the long legs for its holiday hit “Wonka” and continued in March with the Legendary Pictures duo of “Godzilla x Kong” and “Dune: Part Two.” (The strikes delayed “Dune” from November 2023 to March 2024.)

That critical support for theaters was something that Warner could hang its hat on when it faced turbulence later in the year. The domestic box office success of “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” was sandwiched between two of the most high-profile flops of the year in “Furiosa” and “Joker: Folie a Deux.”

“Furiosa,” along with the Universal blunder “The Fall Guy,” was part of a particularly woeful May, which was without a Marvel film to boost numbers for the first time since 2006. Monthly grosses sunk to the worst level the industry had seen outside of the pandemic in the last quarter-century. By mid-June, the domestic box office total was 27.5% behind 2023’s pace and 42.6% behind 2019.

Anxiety to the rescue

Amidst all the early summer misery, studios and exhibitors sent the same message: This too shall pass. With the slate delays caused by the strikes isolated to the first half of the year, they exuded confidence that the second half would signal a major rebound.

That turnaround did indeed happen, and slightly earlier than anticipated. Disney/Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” was expected to be a successful sequel, but few in the industry predicted it to be the highest-grossing film of the year and the highest-grossing animated film of all time, with just shy of $1.7 billion worldwide.

More big hit films soon followed, including “Despicable Me 4,” ($361 million domestic) “Twisters,” ($267.7 million) and the delayed “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($636.7 million), which became the highest grossing R-rated film of all time with $1.33 billion worldwide. By the end of the summer, the year-over-year deficit shrank to 14.4% — and the comeback wasn’t done.

Disney roars back

When Disney CEO Bob Iger announced “Moana 2” at the start of 2024 on an earnings call, Disney was looking to rebound after an uncharacteristically inconsistent 2023. For every success like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” or “Elemental,” the box office giant suffered a flop like “The Marvels” or “Wish.”

By the time “Moana 2” hit theaters at Thanksgiving, Disney had reasserted its dominance. With the minor exception of the 20th Century low-budget horror sequel “The First Omen,” every 2024 release for the company was a success.

“Moana 2” cemented that dominance with a $225 million five-day opening that generated the biggest Thanksgiving opening in history. As of writing, it has crossed $900 million worldwide and will be the third $1 billion release of 2024 — all from Disney.

With annual grosses of more than $2 billion domestic and $5 billion worldwide, Disney has once again shown that while other studios are more than capable of releasing global cultural hits like “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) or “Oppenheimer” (Universal), there is no true recovery for movie theaters without Disney’s IP stable firing on all cylinders. With three more Marvel movies and sequels to “Zootopia” and “Avatar” on the slate next year, expect exhibitors to once again turn to Disney as the big moneymaker.

IP still rules

None of those films listed above were truly original films, as the dominance of pre-existing IP only expanded in 2024. Films that aren’t sequels or an adaptation of another form of media not only didn’t crack the top 10 this year, they didn’t even crack the top 20.

The non-sequels that did break into the top 20 include Universal’s smash hit musical “Wicked,” which is now the highest grossing film adaptation of a Broadway musical ever. It of course also had its connection to the classic “The Wizard of Oz” to draw in audiences. Book adaptations like Sony’s “It Ends With Us” from author Colleen Hoover and Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot” from Peter Brown also made that list.

For a truly original film, you have to turn to Paramount and John Krasinski’s summer family film “IF,” a movie about a secret world of imaginary friends, and Amazon MGM’s “Red One,” a film that had a turbulent production and barely outgrossed its production budget theatrically but has become a smash streaming hit for Amazon Prime.

“IF” was the top original domestic grosser with $111 million while “Red One” was the top original global grosser with $281 million. Honorable mention goes to Neon’s indie horror breakout hit “Longlegs,” which used a crackerjack digital marketing campaign to gross $74.6 million domestic and $126.9 million worldwide against a $10 million budget.

A preview of 2025?

The split-personality box office of 2024 compares favorably to the current box office. Paramount’s “Sonic 3” and Disney’s “Mufasa” have become steady chart-toppers, while Focus’ “Nosferatu” and Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown” have earned the strongest openings for their distributors since the pandemic. And “Moana 2” and “Wicked” are posting robust numbers despite being in theaters for more than a month.

It is that sort of widespread success that both studios and theaters want to see more of in 2025, a year that won’t be hindered by strike-related delays.

With 110 wide releases and counting set to come in the new year, there’s a better chance of that happening as long as studio marketing and filmmaker quality continue to get audiences in the seats.

The post How the 2024 Box Office Rallied From a Dire First Half to an $8.7 Billion Year appeared first on TheWrap.

It’s a tight race between the still speeding “Sonic 3” and the resurgent “Mufasa” for No. 1, with the hedgehog currently having the edge with an estimated $37.4 million Fri.-Sun. total that is just a 38% drop from its $60 million opening weekend. “Mufasa” is just behind with an estimated $35 million, matching its opening weekend total.

When the weekend window is extended to five days to include Christmas Day, “Mufasa” takes the narrow lead with an estimated $61 million compared to $59 million for “Sonic 3.” Families more familiar with “The Lion King” than Sega’s video games have flocked to Barry Jenkins’ prequel starting on Christmas Day, just as Disney had hoped, giving it a chance to join “Sonic 3” in potentially crossing $200 million domestic and $500 million worldwide.

Meanwhile, two Christmas Day specialty offerings are performing very well in wide release. Focus Features’ “Nosferatu,” after beating expectations with an $11.5 million opening day on Wednesday, is now estimated to earn $20 million this weekend for a $39 million 5-day start from 2,992 theaters, above projections for a $30 million extended launch.

Produced on a reported $50 million budget, Robert Eggers remake of the classic vampire tale earned Rotten Tomatoes scores of 86% critics and 76% audience and a B- on CinemaScore, the latter’s grade just above the C+ of this summer’s indie horror hit, “Longlegs.” With this start, “Nosferatu” will become the highest grossing Focus Features release since the first “Downton Abbey” film, which grossed $96 million in 2019, and is on course to become one of the distributor’s top 10 highest grossing films ever.

Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown,” meanwhile, is drawing in older moviegoers well with its recounting of Bob Dylan’s early career, earning an estimated $12 million this weekend for a 5-day start of $23.5 million from 2,835 locations. With an A on CinemaScore and a 95% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, it has everything it needs to become Searchlight’s highest grossing movie since the Best Picture winner “The Shape of Water,” which grossed $63.8 million in 2017.

In a sign of how strong the box office is right now, “A Complete Unknown” didn’t crack the top 5 despite this great start thanks to the excellent holds for Universal’s “Wicked” and Disney’s “Moana 2.” “Wicked,” rolled out a sing-along version on Christmas Day, has crossed the $400 million domestic mark with $19.8 million grossed in its sixth weekend, giving it an estimated $424 million total in North America. “Moana 2” is right behind with $17.7 million for a $394 million domestic total as it inches closer to $1 billion worldwide.

The post ‘Sonic 3’ Narrowly Leads ‘Mufasa’ in a Strong Final Weekend for 2024 Box Office appeared first on TheWrap.

Lifted by positive audience word-of-mouth, increased family turnout and support from Imax screens, Barry Jenkins’ prequel to “The Lion King” earned $15 million on Christmas Day, just over double the $7.1 million that it earned on Christmas Eve. Exhibition sources say they believe “Mufasa” will continue to enjoy a lead over “Sonic 3” through the weekend with a projected 5-day extended weekend total of $65 million, enough to bring its domestic total to $115 million.

Though it won’t get anywhere near $1 billion, let alone the $1.65 billion of the 2019 “Lion King” remake, “Mufasa” is shrugging off the threat of becoming a box office flop after a poor pre-Xmas start. Despite being disappointed by that start, Disney insiders say the studio had faith that families that were not able to make it out to the theater before Christmas would turn out for Jenkins’ film.

That faith is proving to be well placed as Disney’s final release for 2024 picks up momentum with $64 million domestic and $197 million worldwide so far.

That success for “Mufasa” isn’t coming at the expense of “Sonic 3,” which continues to hum along with $10.3 million on Wednesday. The video game adaptation now has $88 million domestic and should reach $125-130 million by Sunday as it begins its overseas rollout.

While those family films continue their run, Focus Features is drawing out horror fans with Robert Eggers’ remake of “Nosferatu,” which opened on Christmas Day to $11.5 million from 2,911 locations and is projected by exhibitor sources for a $30 million-plus 5-day opening.

Starring Bill Skarsgard as the fearsome vampire Count Orlok, “Nosferatu” is sharing Imax screens with “Mufasa” this weekend and has current Rotten Tomatoes scores of 87% critics and 76% audience to go with a B- on CinemaScore. Compared to other top indie horror films, that is between the C+ of Osgood Perkins’ “Longlegs” and the B of Damien Leone’s “Terrifier 3.”

Also opening on Christmas Day is Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown,” James Mangold’s biopic starring Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan. The film opened to $7.2 million from 2,835 locations and is enjoying strong reception from fans of the folk music legend with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes audience score and an A on CinemaScore.

Finally, Amazon MGM’s “The Fire Inside” earned $1.6 million from 2,006 locations as it is projected for a $6 million 5-day opening. Directed by Rachel Morrison, the film stars Ryan Destiny as boxing legend Claressa Shields, a five-division world champion and the first American to win consecutive boxing Olympic gold medals. It has strong reception scores across the board with a 95% critics and 96% audience RT score to go with an A on CinemaScore.

The post ‘Mufasa’ Leaps Past ‘Sonic 3’ to Take Top Spot at Christmas Day Box Office With $14.7 Million appeared first on TheWrap.

Were it any other time of the year, the $35 million domestic/$122 million global opening of this Barry Jenkins-directed prequel to the 2019 “Lion King” remake — well short of pre-release projections of $50 million and $180 million — would be a sign of an impending flop.

But this is Christmas, a time of miracles… and long box office legs.

First announced in September 2020 and carrying a reported $200 million production budget, “Mufasa” was never expected to get anywhere near the $1.65 billion global total of its predecessor. Without the familiar story and songs of the Disney Renaissance classic to draw in audiences, “Mufasa” — which tells the origin story of young brothers Mufasa and Scar — had to base its marketing around an updated version of the photorealistic CGI style that wowed audiences five years ago but has become the target of ire from many ever since.

While those updates to make the lions of the Pride Lands more expressive this time around got some praise from critics, reviews for “Mufasa” were as mixed as they were for the “Lion King” remake with a 57% Rotten Tomatoes score. That provided no help in creating any sense of urgency or increased interest among general audiences.

But as history has shown with films from “The Greatest Showman” to “Wonka,” the holiday season is a time of year where a low opening weekend can transform into a decent final total, even for a film with a high break-even point like “Mufasa.” Here’s the best and worst case scenarios:

Worst Case: Families Flock to ‘Sonic 3’

Whether or not “Mufasa” salvages its theatrical run comes down to whether the positive word-of-mouth from early audiences spreads over the coming days and weeks. Currently, “Mufasa” enjoys an A- on CinemaScore — the same grade as the Disney animated flop “Wish” but also as last year’s leggy holiday hit “Wonka” — along with a 5/5 PostTrak score from families and an 89% Rotten Tomatoes audience score.

But Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” is doing even better with an A on CinemaScore and top PostTrak scores from families and general audiences. The Sega threequel has seen steeper day-to-day dropoffs than expected after initial studio projections of a $70 million start, but is still headed for a $62 million opening.

The success of “Sonic 3” isn’t a major factor in the weak start for “Mufasa.” Paramount’s series has demonstrated since it first launched in 2020 that it enjoys a devoted, consistent base of hedgehog-loving gamers that will turn out on opening weekend no matter the release date or the competition.

But in the worst-case scenario, “Sonic 3” ends up attracting a wider swath of families than expected thanks to that series-best buzz, not to mention the continued strong success of “Wicked” and “Moana 2” over the holidays. Insiders at Disney, along with exhibitors, tell TheWrap that in the Christmas week ahead, they expect that kids’ interest in “Sonic 3” will skew more towards boys, leaving some room for “Mufasa” to keep legging out with families who aren’t as familiar or interested in the Sega games.

If that doesn’t happen, “Mufasa” could face a situation where pleasing opening night moviegoers isn’t enough to overcome its image among the wider populace as an inessential prequel that answers questions about “The Lion King” that they didn’t ask. That would put more pressure on the film to perform internationally, where it will be the top Hollywood offering in Asia and parts of Europe but will face more competition from “Sonic 3” in Latin America, UK and Australia in its bid just to break even.

Best Case Scenario: There’s Room for Everyone

In the best case scenario, Christmas Day marks the start of slow but steady turnout from families for “Mufasa.” Exhibitor sources told TheWrap that there had been solid presales for the Disney film prior to its release, a possible signal that there are moviegoers who were sold on the film prior to release that are waiting until they have more time during the holidays to get in theaters.

With Christmas Day falling on a Wednesday this year, studios and theaters get the maximum impact of the holidays as the public gets a weekday off from work. That is what allows major studio tentpoles released the weekend before Christmas to leg out, as the time off spreads out the audience and increases the amount of time for word-of-mouth to spread with the lack of significant wide release competition in early January.

While the quantity is unknown, there will be families who will prefer to see “Mufasa” over “Sonic 3” simply because they are more familiar with Disney films than Sega games. With general audience support likely to be sparser given the lower audience scores from that subset, it will probably be up to Disney to draw out those parents and kids to earn a domestic run of $125-175 million and a global run somewhere between $550-600 million buoyed by the aforementioned international markets where big screen spectacle is valued and “Sonic 3” may not have as big an opening when it begins its overseas run this week.

A $575 million final total would put “Mufasa” in the same territory as last year’s remake of “The Little Mermaid,” which grossed $569 million worldwide. Compared to the heights of the Disney remake series in the late 2010s, such a result would be a disappointment. But it would at least allow the film to finish with a modest theatrical profit and for Disney to end 2024 with a soft landing after grossing more than $4 billion at the global box office.

The post ‘Mufasa’: Best and Worst Case Scenario for Disney’s Prequel After Poor $35 Million Launch appeared first on TheWrap.